ABSTRACT
Rationale: COVID-19 severity varies widely; children and African Americans have low and high risk, respectively. Mechanistic data from these groups and the mucosa is lacking. Objectives: To quantify mucosal and systemic viral and immune dynamics in a diverse cohort to identify mechanisms underpinning COVID-19 severity and outcome predictors. Methods: In this prospective study of unvaccinated children and adults COVID-19 outcome was based on an ordinal clinical severity scale. We quantified viral RNA, antigens, antibodies, and cytokines by PCR, ELISA, and Luminex from 579 longitudinally collected blood and nasal specimens from 78 subjects including 45 women and used modeling to determine functional relationships between these data. Measurements and Main Results: COVID-19 induced unique immune responses in African Americans (n=26) and children (n=20). Mild outcome was associated with more effective coordinated responses whereas moderate and severe outcomes had rapid seroconversion, significantly higher antigen, mucosal sCD40L, MCP-3, MCP-1, MIP-1, and MIP-1{beta}, and systemic IgA, IgM, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-15, IL-1RA, and IP-10, and uncoordinated early immune responses that went unresolved. Mucosal IL-8, IL-1{beta}, and IFN-{gamma} with systemic IL-1RA and IgA predicted COVID-19 outcomes. Conclusions: We present novel mucosal data, biomarkers, and therapeutic targets from a diverse cohort. Based on our findings, children and African Americans with COVID-19 have significantly lower IL-6 and IL-17 levels which may reduce responsiveness to drugs targeting IL-6 and IL-17. Unregulated immune responses persisted indicating moderate to severe COVID-19 cases may require prolonged treatments. Reliance on slower acting adaptive responses may cause immune crisis for some adults who encounter a novel virus.